Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Early Real-time Estimation of Infectious Disease Reproduction Number
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a reliable estimate for the basic reproduction number, R0, from the limited information available. We present a novel method that enables us to make a reliabl...
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The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will persist. Its counterpart over time, the effective reproduction number, is of value in assessing in real time whether interventions have brought an outbreak under control. In this paper, we use theoretical arguments and simulation to understand the relationship between estimation of the reproduction n...
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We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number R0 early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of R0 with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Physical Review X
سال: 2012
ISSN: 2160-3308
DOI: 10.1103/physrevx.2.031005